Congratulations to the ball 4th from center on the bottom edge of the swarm. You're the winning ball!3yr ⋅ LordLoveALefty ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Honestly, my favorite thing about FiveThirtyEight is seeing the staff's discussions on Twitter.3yr ⋅ ThatFuckingKitten ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Dear Mr.ABCnews, can you please call the election so my pal Nate can finally get some sleep? He hasn't slept in 3 days and we're getting worried3yr ⋅ pokAtok ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Trump's disapproval rating is now at the highest of his entire presidency3yr ⋅ spakier ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
It is now more likely that Democrats win both houses rather than Republicans winning both houses1yr ⋅ HereForTOMT2 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Here's how the prediction markets have reacted to the Republican Debate8mo ⋅ Cuddlyaxe ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
There something absurd about having an upbeat cartoon character for an election where democracy is on the line.3yr ⋅ ChatrouletteCorvette ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
For the first time this cycle, the Deluxe model predicts Democrats have better odds of winning *both* chambers than for Republicans to do so1yr ⋅ 9489 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Final What if the polls were off in each state by the exact margin they were in 2016? Map3yr ⋅ flavorraven ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Took a poll on the FiveThirtyEight website. I only had one suggestion:3yr ⋅ thisisnatedean ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Democrats now lead by 2.0% on generic ballot average, with 6 weeks until election day1yr ⋅ The_Rube_ ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
[Shitpost] How it feels to refresh the new polls every 10 minutes3yr ⋅ Johnsmith226 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Florida voted for Trump and also voted for a $15 minimum wage. Clearly Nate didn't factor in Florida being really stupid.3yr ⋅ i_am_bartman ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
For the first time since 4th February 2019, Trump's approval is below 40%!3yr ⋅ CroGamer002 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Biden overtakes Trump in betting odds aggregate for the first time since September 1wk ⋅ NateSilverFan ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Anyone else just look at the house prediction tab when you're stressed about the election?3yr ⋅ pokAtok ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Asking the important questions: Why are Nate's books sorted by color?3yr ⋅ Californie_cramoisie ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Trump favored to be the Republican candidate for President in 20243yr ⋅ thmonline ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
credit to micah cohen for immediately identifying the most important part of trumps january 7 video1yr ⋅ mead93 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Another full-page NYT Headline -- Trump's chances of winning the 2020 election just went up again!3yr ⋅ dtarias ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Another full-page NYT headline -- uncertainty in the model (and Trump's chance of winning reelection) just increased!3yr ⋅ dtarias ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
[Wasserman] NEW at @CookPolitical: five House rating changes, all in Democrats' direction (AK-AL to Toss Up, AZ-04 and MD-06 to Likely D, Ny-03 and VA-07 to Lean D)1yr ⋅ al_fletcher ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
2020 electoral map if only ____ voted. Breakdown by each major demographics.3yr ⋅ Berd89 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
My man Dougie Jones (D-AL), who leads the latest poll, is currently more than twice as likely to win re-election as Trump3yr ⋅ Jordan117 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Nate Silver on Democrats' improving (somewhat) Senate numbers1yr ⋅ TheAngryObserver ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
538 - Governor's forecast gives 25-25 to D-R split. The split is same for all the three models. A big change from the current 22-28 D-R split1yr ⋅ Icommandyou ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
This is what the chances look like if you give Trump and Biden all states where they have 90% or greater projection to win [fixed]3yr ⋅ Hotlava_ ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
JUST IN: Nate has updated the model to include the downfall of democracy3yr ⋅ MDude430 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
I asked an AI what the 2024 election results will look like. The results are pretty confusing.1yr ⋅ IIAOPSW ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Occasionally the 538 model will show a tie among its simulated outcomes, and interestingly it's almost always this map.3yr ⋅ SwordsToPlowshares ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Counties where the 2020 Democratic candidate gained more votes than Trump and vice versa3yr ⋅ jinkinson ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
County Covid deaths in July and August by support for Trump in 2020 (article in comments)2yr ⋅ aeouo ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
The Economist: Trump Needs a Polling Error 2 to 3x the Size of the 2016 Error to Win3yr ⋅ tripletruble ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
I’m obsessed but Ohio now being “red tossup” instead of “blue tossup” stresses me out3yr ⋅ ReallyConfusedAlpaca ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
I can't unsee Catgirl Micah after the most recent podcast3yr ⋅ Titus_Tricipitinus ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Difference between 538 predicted and actual vote margin in the 2020 election by state3yr ⋅ jinkinson ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Florida democrats who haven't yet voted outnumber republicans even still. Could see big numbers on election day too from Dems.3yr ⋅ RedWhiteAndChelsea ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Americans massively lose trust in safety of J&J vaccine following pause.3yr ⋅ [deleted] ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
“How many years of school denied are morally equivalent to one life lost,” the longest debate in the history of utilitarian thought2yr ⋅ dwaxe ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
My Fivey Fox shirt finally arrived! just in time for people who aren't data nerds to stop caring about FiveThirtyEight...3yr ⋅ coasterlover1994 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Final pre-election FT-Peterson poll shows voters turning against Trump’s economic policies3yr ⋅ jacquesopper ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Looks like Biden will win the popular vote by 4-5 points. Nate’s model also had Biden at 89%.3yr ⋅ JPnets54 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Difference between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections in Texas by county (D = more Democratic in 2020 than 2012, R = the opposite)3yr ⋅ jinkinson ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
if Trump Wins Oregon, Biden's Odds in Mississippi Soar to 40%3yr ⋅ Powerpenguin14 ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
COVID news probably hasn't been factored in, but Trump's chances are now in the teens3yr ⋅ LavenderTabby ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
2020 presidential election results by new House district (blank districts are those where the margin either way was <5%)1yr ⋅ unnecessarycharacter ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
The best performing US presidential candidate in each county since 1960 [OC]2yr ⋅ PopsicleIncorporated ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
What if demographics were destiny? The 2020 presidential election results if white and nonwhite voters had voted the same in every state as they did nationally2yr ⋅ jinkinson ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
The 2020 presidential forecast % chance of Biden winning each state looks a lot like a logistic function of the predicted % margin in that state3yr ⋅ jinkinson ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
changes to the Electoral College given the 2020 Census Projections, according to CNN. How do you think this will affect the 2024 elections?3yr ⋅ Pinuzzo ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
Rasmussen's correlation with FiveThirtyEight's average approval rating steadily decreased throughout Trump's presidency [OC]3yr ⋅ wolverinelord ⋅ r/fivethirtyeight
